South Carolina Senate
96%
GOP
4%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +12.2·80% of simulations: R +21.0 to R +3.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +14.9
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +2.7
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +1.9
Forecasted margin
R +12.2
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abacus Data | Aug 28, 2026 | R +13 | 306 | lv |
| Impact Research | Aug 24, 2026 | Even | 700 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 4%
GOP 96%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- State lean
- R+17 This state leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Annie Andrews
Republican Darline Graham