South Carolina Senate

74%

GOP

26%Dem

Lean R

▲ D+8% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R+3.480% of simulations: R+10.6 to D+3.7

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R+14.9

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

D+3.2

National Environment

current political climate

D+4.2

Polls

recent state and district polling

D+4.1

Forecasted margin

R+3.4

What Changes the Forecast

The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
Impact Research Fresh Start SC PACDemocratic	Oct 21, 2026	D+1	LV
Trafalgar GroupRepublican	Oct 18, 2026	R+3	LV
InsiderAdvantage	Sep 29, 2026	R+1	LV
Trafalgar GroupRepublican	Sep 25, 2026	R+1	LV
InsiderAdvantage	Sep 9, 2026	R+2	LV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 26%

GOP 74%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Lean R Inside Elections Lean R Sabato Likely R

PVI

R+17 This state leans strongly Republican.

Candidates

Democrat Annie Andrews

Republican Darline Graham