South Carolina Senate

97%

GOP

3%Dem

Solid R

▲ D +1% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R +14.1·80% of simulations: R +25.2 to R +3.1

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R +14.9

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R +3.7

National Environment

current political climate

D +4.0

Polls

recent state and district polling

D +0.5

Forecasted margin

R +14.1

Polls

Polls (4)

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	N	Sample
Impact Research	Jun 22, 2026	R +3	700	lv
Impact Research	Mar 1, 2026	R +5	700	lv
Public Policy Polling	Nov 22, 2025	R +6	704	rv
Public Policy Polling	Nov 22, 2025	R +2	704	rv

What Changes the Forecast

Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time

Dem 3%

GOP 97%

Race Details