South Carolina Senate
93%
GOP
7%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +15.2·80% of simulations: R +28.0 to R +2.3
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +14.9
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +2.8
National Environment
current political climate
D +2.2
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.3
Forecasted margin
R +15.2
Polls
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | Mar 1, 2026 | R +5 | 700 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | Nov 22, 2025 | R +6 | 704 | rv |
| Public Policy Polling | Nov 22, 2025 | R +2 | 704 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
The model has heard from everyone. Unless something changes, this is our best guess.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 7%
R 93%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- State Lean
- This state leans strongly Republican (R+17).
- Candidates
- Annie Andrews (D) Lindsey Graham (R) (inc.)