South Carolina's 1st Congressional District
70%
GOP
30%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +7.6·80% of simulations: R +27.5 to D +12.1
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +11.0
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +4.8
National Environment
current political climate
D +7.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
R +7.7
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 30%
GOP 70%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+12 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Nancy Lacore
Republican Jenny Costa Honeycutt
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is running for governor of South Carolina.