South Carolina's 1st Congressional District

67%

GOP

33%Dem

Lean R

▲ D+16% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R+2.180% of simulations: R+8.4 to D+4.3

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R+11.0

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R+0.1

National Environment

current political climate

D+9.4

Polls

recent state and district polling

R+0.4

Forecasted margin

R+2.1

What Changes the Forecast

Everything agrees. Politics may yet find a way to make this weird.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
Public Policy Polling House Majority PACDemocratic	Oct 22, 2026	D+2	LV
co/efficient	Oct 1, 2026	R+6	LV
Public Policy Polling The BenchDemocratic	Sep 10, 2026	R+1	RV
GQR House Majority PACDemocratic	Jul 22, 2026	R+2	LV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 33%

GOP 67%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Lean R Inside Elections Lean R Sabato Lean R

PVI

R+12 This district leans strongly Republican.

Candidates

Democrat Nancy Lacore

Republican Jenny Costa Honeycutt

Seat context

Open seat. The incumbent is running for governor of South Carolina.