South Carolina's 7th Congressional District
99%
GOP
1%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +21.3·80% of simulations: R +30.6 to R +12.0
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +22.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +6.0
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +1.6
Forecasted margin
R +21.3
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blueprint Polling | Jul 28, 2026 | R +4 | 557 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 1%
GOP 99%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+24 This is a safe Republican district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat John Vincent
Republican Russell Fry (inc.)