South Carolina's 5th Congressional District
96%
GOP
4%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +18.8·80% of simulations: R +32.0 to R +5.6
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +19.9
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +5.2
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.8
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.5
Forecasted margin
R +18.8
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 4%
GOP 96%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+22 This is a safe Republican district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Mallory Dittmer
Republican Wes Climer
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is running for governor of South Carolina.