South Carolina Governor
99%
GOP
1%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +20.6·80% of simulations: R +29.5 to R +11.7
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the state votes compared with the nation
R +18.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +9.2
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +1.2
Forecasted margin
R +20.6
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies | Aug 15, 2026 | R +7 | 600 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | Jul 17, 2026 | R +8 | 577 | rv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 1%
GOP 99%
Race Details
- State lean
- R+17 This state leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Jermaine Johnson
Republican Alan Wilson
- Seat context
- Open seat: Henry McMaster is term-limited.