Wisconsin's 6th Congressional District
98%
GOP
2%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +19.8·80% of simulations: R +31.2 to R +8.3
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +15.0
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +6.7
National Environment
current political climate
D +2.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +0.3
Forecasted margin
R +19.7
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavern Research | May 28, 2026 | R +22 | 437 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 2%
R 98%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans strongly Republican (R+16).
- Candidates
- Aaron Wojciechowski (D) Glenn Grothman (R) (inc.)