Wisconsin's 6th Congressional District
98%
GOP
2%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +17.4·80% of simulations: R +27.3 to R +7.6
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +15.0
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +9.3
National Environment
current political climate
D +6.7
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
R +17.4
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavern Research | May 28, 2026 | R +22 | 437 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 2%
GOP 98%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+16 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Brad Smith
Republican Glenn Grothman (inc.)