Wisconsin's 6th Congressional District
98%
GOP
2%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+15.0
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+9.9
National Environment
current political climate
D+7.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+0.2
Forecasted margin
R+16.8
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tavern Research Contours | May 28, 2026 | R+22 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 2%
GOP 98%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+16 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Brad Smith
Republican Glenn Grothman (inc.)