Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District
63%
Dem
37%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +2.5·80% of simulations: R +7.7 to D +12.6
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +6.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +0.9
National Environment
current political climate
D +9.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.1
Forecasted margin
D +2.5
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FM3 Research | Jun 25, 2026 | D +4 | 535 | lv |
| Impact Research | May 31, 2026 | D +4 | 500 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 63%
GOP 37%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+7 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Rebecca Cooke
Republican Derrick Van Orden (inc.)