Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District
56%
Dem
44%GOP
▲ D +2% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +1.0·80% of simulations: R +9.5 to D +11.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +6.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +1.0
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.7
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.5
Forecasted margin
D +1.0
Polls
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FM3 Research | Jun 25, 2026 | D +4 | 535 | lv |
| Impact Research | May 31, 2026 | D +4 | 500 | lv |
| Impact Research | Feb 17, 2026 | D +1 | 500 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | Oct 15, 2025 | D +2 | 609 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
This is a textbook coin flip. If the polls start to suggest otherwise, that makes things interesting.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time
Dem 56%
GOP 44%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans Republican (R+7).
- Candidates
- Rebecca Cooke (D) Derrick Van Orden (R) (inc.)