Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District
75%
Dem
25%GOP
▲ D+9% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+6.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+0.8
National Environment
current political climate
D+11.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+0.2
Forecasted margin
D+4.5
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| FM3 Research House Majority PACDemocratic | Jun 25, 2026 | D+4 | LV |
| Impact Research Rebecca CookeDemocratic | May 31, 2026 | D+4 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 75%
GOP 25%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+7 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Rebecca Cooke
Republican Derrick Van Orden (inc.)