Wisconsin Governor
72%
Dem
28%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +3.6·80% of simulations: R +4.8 to D +12.1
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the state votes compared with the nation
R +0.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +5.4
National Environment
current political climate
D +9.0
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.6
Forecasted margin
D +3.6
What Changes the Forecast
The national mood is doing most of the work. A big shift or some new polling might move it.
Polls
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z to A Research | Oct 1, 2026 | D +5 | 662 | lv |
| Marquette University Law School | Sep 23, 2026 | D +3 | 692 | lv |
| Marquette University Law School | Aug 20, 2026 | D +5 | 738 | lv |
| TIPP Insights | Aug 18, 2026 | D +3 | 1,187 | lv |
| Platform Communications | Aug 13, 2026 | D +4 | 500 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 72%
GOP 28%
Race Details
- State lean
- R+1 This is a highly competitive, evenly split state.
- Candidates
-
Democrat David Crowley
Republican Tom Tiffany
- Seat context
- Open seat: Tony Evers is not running again.