Colorado's 5th Congressional District
73%
GOP
27%Dem
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +5.5·80% of simulations: R +17.5 to D +6.6
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +8.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +5.9
National Environment
current political climate
D +8.7
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.3
Forecasted margin
R +5.5
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group | Jul 21, 2026 | R +1 | 450 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 27%
GOP 73%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+9 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Jessica Killin
Republican Jeff Crank (inc.)