Colorado's 8th Congressional District

74%

Dem

26%GOP

Lean D

▲ D+8% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: D+4.280% of simulations: R+4.4 to D+12.9

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R+0.2

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R+7.5

National Environment

current political climate

D+12.5

Polls

recent state and district polling

R+0.6

Forecasted margin

D+4.2

What Changes the Forecast

We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
McLaughlin & Associates Enhancing American CompetitivenessRepublican	Sep 17, 2026	Even	LV
McLaughlin & Associates Enhancing American CompetitivenessRepublican	Sep 17, 2026	R+2	LV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 74%

GOP 26%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Lean D Inside Elections Tossup Sabato Lean D

PVI

R+0 This is a highly competitive, evenly split district.

Candidates

Democrat Manny Rutinel

Republican Gabe Evans (inc.)