Colorado's 3rd Congressional District
80%
GOP
20%Dem
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +7.6·80% of simulations: R +19.6 to D +4.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +8.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +8.1
National Environment
current political climate
D +8.7
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.5
Forecasted margin
R +7.5
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keating Research, Inc. | Jul 23, 2026 | R +1 | 500 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 20%
GOP 80%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+9 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Dwayne Romero
Republican Jeff Hurd (inc.)