New York's 17th Congressional District
63%
Dem
37%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +3.6·80% of simulations: R +11.1 to D +18.3
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +2.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +2.7
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.1
Forecasted margin
D +3.6
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | Feb 17, 2026 | D +5 | 500 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 63%
R 37%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This is a competitive district that leans slightly Democratic (D+3).
- Candidates
- Michael Lawler (R) (inc.) Democratic challenger pending