New York's 17th Congressional District
54%
Dem
46%GOP
▲ R +5% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +0.6·80% of simulations: R +9.3 to D +10.4
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +2.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +7.4
National Environment
current political climate
D +6.2
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +0.9
Forecasted margin
D +0.6
Polls
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient | Jul 22, 2026 | R +5 | 1,292 | lv |
| FM3 Research | Jul 1, 2026 | D +6 | 509 | lv |
| Impact Research | Feb 17, 2026 | D +5 | 500 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
We're just making an assumption based on the national environment at this point.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time
Dem 54%
GOP 46%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This is a competitive district that leans slightly Democratic (D+3).
- Candidates
- Cait Conley (D) Michael Lawler (R) (inc.)