New York's 17th Congressional District
67%
Dem
33%GOP
▲ R +10% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +3.4·80% of simulations: R +7.0 to D +13.8
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +2.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +10.1
National Environment
current political climate
D +12.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +1.7
Forecasted margin
D +3.4
What Changes the Forecast
The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.
Polls
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates | Sep 30, 2026 | R +3 | 400 | lv |
| Emerson College | Sep 29, 2026 | D +2 | 400 | lv |
| co/efficient | Jul 22, 2026 | R +5 | 1,292 | lv |
| FM3 Research | Jul 1, 2026 | D +6 | 509 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 67%
GOP 33%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+3 This is a competitive district that leans slightly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Cait Conley
Republican Mike Lawler (inc.)