New York's 3rd Congressional District
81%
Dem
19%GOP
▲ D +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +10.8·80% of simulations: R +5.4 to D +27.0
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +0.4
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +1.5
National Environment
current political climate
D +12.7
Polls
recent state and district polling
Even
Forecasted margin
D +10.8
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 81%
GOP 19%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+0 This is a highly competitive, evenly split district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Tom Suozzi (inc.)
Republican Mike LiPetri