New York Governor
99%
Dem
1%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +16.4·80% of simulations: D +8.0 to D +24.9
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the state votes compared with the nation
D +12.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +0.2
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +2.3
Forecasted margin
D +16.5
What Changes the Forecast
The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.
Polls
Polls (13)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | Oct 5, 2026 | D +13 | 900 | lv |
| Marist University | Oct 4, 2026 | D +11 | 1,361 | rv |
| co/efficient | Sep 25, 2026 | D +7 | 1,046 | lv |
| Quinnipiac University | Sep 20, 2026 | D +19 | 1,026 | lv |
| Siena University | Sep 17, 2026 | D +9 | 1,144 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 99%
GOP 1%
Race Details
- State lean
- D+15 This state leans strongly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Kathy Hochul (inc.)
Republican Bruce Blakeman