New York's 4th Congressional District
89%
Dem
11%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +11.1·80% of simulations: R +0.6 to D +22.7
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +4.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +5.2
National Environment
current political climate
D +12.1
Polls
recent state and district polling
Even
Forecasted margin
D +11.1
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 89%
GOP 11%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+5 This is a competitive district that leans slightly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Laura Gillen (inc.)
Republican Jeanine Driscoll