New York's 24th Congressional District
96%
GOP
4%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +19.3·80% of simulations: R +32.8 to R +5.9
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +20.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +6.0
National Environment
current political climate
D +6.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.4
Forecasted margin
R +19.3
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 4%
GOP 96%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+22 This is a safe Republican district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Alissa Ellman
Republican Claudia Tenney (inc.)