New York's 23rd Congressional District
99%
GOP
1%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +19.8·80% of simulations: R +28.5 to R +11.1
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +18.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +8.4
National Environment
current political climate
D +7.2
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.1
Forecasted margin
R +19.8
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | Sep 23, 2026 | R +17 | 626 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 1%
GOP 99%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+20 This is a safe Republican district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Aaron Gies
Republican Nick Langworthy (inc.)