New York's 1st Congressional District
89%
GOP
11%Dem
▲ R +4% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +10.2·80% of simulations: R +21.0 to D +0.7
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +7.3
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +14.0
National Environment
current political climate
D +11.0
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.1
Forecasted margin
R +10.2
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 11%
GOP 89%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+8 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Christopher Gallant
Republican Nick LaLota (inc.)