New York's 6th Congressional District
98%
Dem
2%GOP
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +24.2·80% of simulations: D +11.1 to D +37.2
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +11.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +3.5
National Environment
current political climate
D +9.4
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.1
Forecasted margin
D +24.2
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 98%
GOP 2%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+12 This district leans strongly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Grace Meng (inc.)
Republican Joseph Chou