New York's 2nd Congressional District
87%
GOP
13%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +15.1·80% of simulations: R +32.9 to D +2.7
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +10.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +14.9
National Environment
current political climate
D +9.8
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
R +15.1
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 13%
GOP 87%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+11 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Patrick Halpin
Republican Andrew Garbarino (inc.)