New York's 21st Congressional District
94%
GOP
6%Dem
▲ D +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +10.7·80% of simulations: R +19.2 to R +2.1
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +17.9
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +3.2
National Environment
current political climate
D +7.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +3.1
Forecasted margin
R +10.7
What Changes the Forecast
The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.
Polls
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | Sep 10, 2026 | R +5 | 557 | rv |
| Impact Research | Sep 2, 2026 | R +3 | 500 | lv |
| J.L. Partners | Aug 17, 2026 | R +13 | 500 | lv |
| SurveyUSA | Aug 8, 2026 | D +4 | 612 | lv |
| Impact Research | May 31, 2026 | R +1 | 500 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 6%
GOP 94%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+19 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Blake Gendebien
Republican Anthony Constantino
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.