New York's 15th Congressional District
100%
Dem
0%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +50.7·80% of simulations: D +40.9 to D +60.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +49.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +5.5
National Environment
current political climate
D +6.4
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.3
Forecasted margin
D +50.7
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 100%
GOP 0%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+54 This is a safe Democrat district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Ritchie Torres (inc.)
Republican Stylo Sapaskis