New York's 26th Congressional District
99%
Dem
1%GOP
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +26.0·80% of simulations: D +15.3 to D +36.7
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +19.4
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +0.8
National Environment
current political climate
D +7.1
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.3
Forecasted margin
D +26.0
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 99%
GOP 1%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+21 This is a safe Democrat district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Tim Kennedy (inc.)
Republican Dennis Hannon