New York's 18th Congressional District
100%
Dem
0%GOP
▲ D +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +21.6·80% of simulations: D +12.9 to D +30.3
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +4.4
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +5.3
National Environment
current political climate
D +12.1
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +0.2
Forecasted margin
D +21.6
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group | Jul 26, 2026 | D +14 | 500 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 100%
GOP 0%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+5 This is a competitive district that leans slightly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Pat Ryan (inc.)
Republican Jackie May Auringer