New York's 7th Congressional District
100%
Dem
0%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +44.9·80% of simulations: D +35.1 to D +54.6
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +45.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +7.4
National Environment
current political climate
D +6.4
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.3
Forecasted margin
D +44.9
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 100%
GOP 0%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+50 This is a safe Democrat district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Claire Valdez
Republican Melvin Rivera
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.