New York's 20th Congressional District
99%
Dem
1%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +24.8·80% of simulations: D +12.1 to D +37.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +14.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +2.2
National Environment
current political climate
D +8.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.1
Forecasted margin
D +24.8
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 99%
GOP 1%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+15 This district leans strongly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Paul Tonko (inc.)
Republican Ralph Ambrosio