New York's 22nd Congressional District
98%
Dem
2%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +22.6·80% of simulations: D +9.5 to D +35.8
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +7.9
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +3.9
National Environment
current political climate
D +10.8
Polls
recent state and district polling
Even
Forecasted margin
D +22.6
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 98%
GOP 2%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+9 This district leans Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat John Mannion (inc.)
Republican Kailee Marie Buller