New York's 11th Congressional District
95%
GOP
5%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +18.3·80% of simulations: R +32.2 to R +4.4
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +18.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +7.2
National Environment
current political climate
D +7.2
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.3
Forecasted margin
R +18.3
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 5%
GOP 95%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+20 This is a safe Republican district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Michael DeCillis
Republican Nicole Malliotakis (inc.)