New York's 19th Congressional District
92%
Dem
8%GOP
▲ D +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +15.5·80% of simulations: D +1.3 to D +29.8
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +2.3
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +0.6
National Environment
current political climate
D +12.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
Even
Forecasted margin
D +15.5
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 92%
GOP 8%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+2 This is a competitive district that leans slightly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Josh Riley (inc.)
Republican Peter Oberacker