California's 22nd Congressional District
63%
Dem
37%GOP
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +3.1·80% of simulations: R +9.3 to D +15.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +2.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +10.0
National Environment
current political climate
D +10.4
Polls
recent state and district polling
Even
Forecasted margin
D +3.1
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research | Jun 21, 2026 | D +4 | 800 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 63%
GOP 37%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+3 This is a competitive district that leans slightly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Randy Villegas
Republican David Valadao (inc.)
- Notes
- Top-two primary