California's 22nd Congressional District
52%
Dem
48%GOP
▲ D +3% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +0.4·80% of simulations: R +12.6 to D +13.4
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +2.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +8.8
National Environment
current political climate
D +6.2
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.3
Forecasted margin
D +0.4
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research | Jun 21, 2026 | D +4 | 800 | lv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time
Dem 52%
GOP 48%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This is a competitive district that leans slightly Democratic (D+3).
- Candidates
- Randy Villegas (D) David Valadao (R) (inc.)
- Notes
- Top-two primary