California's 22nd Congressional District
72%
Dem
28%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D+2.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+11.1
National Environment
current political climate
D+12.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
Even
Forecasted margin
D+3.9
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tulchin Research House Majority PACDemocratic | Jun 21, 2026 | D+4 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 72%
GOP 28%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- D+3 This is a competitive district that leans slightly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Randy Villegas
Republican David Valadao (inc.)
- Notes
- Top-two primary