California's 22nd Congressional District
51%
GOP
49%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +0.2·80% of simulations: R +15.0 to D +14.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +2.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +6.4
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
Even
Forecasted margin
R +0.2
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | Aug 8, 2025 | Even | 547 | rv |
| Public Policy Polling | Aug 8, 2025 | D +2 | 547 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 49%
R 51%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This is a competitive district that leans slightly Democratic (D+3).
- Candidates
- David Valadao (R) (inc.) Democratic challenger pending
- Notes
- Top-two primary