California's 21st Congressional District

87%

Dem

13%GOP

Likely D

— No change since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: D +12.8·80% of simulations: R +5.1 to D +30.7

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

D +9.2

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R +1.5

National Environment

current political climate

D +5.1

Polls

recent state and district polling

Even

Forecasted margin

D +12.8

Polls

No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.

What Changes the Forecast

Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time

Dem 87%

GOP 13%

Race Details