California's 21st Congressional District
91%
Dem
9%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +16.9·80% of simulations: D +0.6 to D +33.3
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +9.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +0.7
National Environment
current political climate
D +8.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +0.1
Forecasted margin
D +16.9
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 91%
GOP 9%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+10 This district leans strongly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Jim Costa (inc.)
Republican Kyle Kirkland
- Notes
- Top-two primary