California's 21st Congressional District
93%
Dem
7%GOP
▲ D+2% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D+9.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+0.3
National Environment
current political climate
D+10.1
Polls
polling in similar districts
R+0.1
Forecasted margin
D+18.9
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 93%
GOP 7%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- D+10 This district leans strongly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Jim Costa (inc.)
Republican Kyle Kirkland
- Notes
- Top-two primary