California's 39th Congressional District
96%
Dem
4%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +20.8·80% of simulations: D +6.3 to D +35.2
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +12.9
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +0.6
National Environment
current political climate
D +7.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
Even
Forecasted margin
D +20.8
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 96%
GOP 4%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+14 This district leans strongly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Mark Takano (inc.)
Republican Steve Manos
- Notes
- Top-two primary