California Governor
100%
Dem
0%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the state votes compared with the nation
D+25.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+3.0
National Environment
current political climate
D+4.4
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+0.8
Forecasted margin
D+27.4
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
Polls (14)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | Oct 19, 2026 | D+27 | LV |
| ActiVote | Oct 16, 2026 | D+26 | LV |
| Truedot Politico, UC Berkeley | Oct 14, 2026 | D+20 | LV |
| Manhattan Institute | Oct 1, 2026 | D+18 | LV |
| IVC Media Independent Voter Project | Sep 28, 2026 | D+10 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 100%
GOP 0%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- D+23 This is a safe Democrat state.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Xavier Becerra
Republican Steve Hilton
- Notes
- Top-two primary
- Seat context
- Open seat: Gavin Newsom is term-limited.