California's 1st Congressional District
95%
Dem
5%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D+12.9
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+1.5
National Environment
current political climate
D+8.6
Polls
polling in similar districts
R+0.1
Forecasted margin
D+19.9
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 95%
GOP 5%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- D+14 This district leans strongly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Mike McGuire
Republican James Gallagher (inc.)
- Notes
- Top-two primary
- Seat context
- Vacant seat. Special election pending after the incumbent died in office in January 2026.