California's 1st Congressional District
95%
Dem
5%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +20.2·80% of simulations: D +5.5 to D +34.9
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +12.9
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +0.1
National Environment
current political climate
D +7.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +0.1
Forecasted margin
D +20.2
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 95%
GOP 5%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+14 This district leans strongly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Michael McGuire
Republican James Gallagher
- Notes
- Top-two primary
- Seat context
- Vacant seat. Special election pending after the incumbent died in office in January 2026.