California's 48th Congressional District
90%
Dem
10%GOP
▲ D+1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D+4.1
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+6.1
National Environment
current political climate
D+11.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
R+1.3
Forecasted margin
D+8.6
What Changes the Forecast
The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.
Polls
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tarrance Group Jim DesmondRepublican | Oct 20, 2026 | D+3 | LV |
| SurveyUSA KGTV, San Diego Union-Tribune | Oct 7, 2026 | D+9 | LV |
| SurveyUSA KGTV, San Diego Union-Tribune | Sep 1, 2026 | D+3 | LV |
| Lake Research Partners Marni von WilpertDemocratic | Jul 14, 2026 | D+2 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 90%
GOP 10%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- D+5 This is a competitive district that leans slightly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Marni von Wilpert
Republican Jim Desmond
- Notes
- Top-two primary
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.