California's 48th Congressional District
78%
Dem
22%GOP
▲ R +2% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +6.8·80% of simulations: R +5.2 to D +18.9
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +4.1
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +6.1
National Environment
current political climate
D +10.1
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +1.3
Forecasted margin
D +6.8
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | Sep 1, 2026 | D +3 | 522 | lv |
| Lake Research Partners | Jul 14, 2026 | D +2 | 500 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 78%
GOP 22%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+5 This is a competitive district that leans slightly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Marni von Wilpert
Republican Jim Desmond
- Notes
- Top-two primary
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.