California's 3rd Congressional District
96%
Dem
4%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D+10.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D+1.4
National Environment
current political climate
D+9.5
Polls
polling in similar districts
R+0.1
Forecasted margin
D+21.4
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 96%
GOP 4%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- D+12 This district leans strongly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Ami Bera (inc.)
Republican Robb Tucker
- Notes
- Top-two primary District recently redrawn
- Seat context
- Redrawn for 2026 under Prop 50. Forecast uses the current district lines.