California's 41st Congressional District
98%
Dem
2%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +23.9·80% of simulations: D +10.9 to D +36.8
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +16.1
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +1.4
National Environment
current political climate
D +6.4
Polls
recent state and district polling
Even
Forecasted margin
D +23.9
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 98%
GOP 2%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+18 This district leans strongly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Linda Sanchez (inc.)
Republican Mitch Clemmons
- Notes
- Top-two primary District recently redrawn
- Seat context
- Redrawn for 2026 under Prop 50. Forecast uses the current district lines.