California's 6th Congressional District
88%
Dem
12%Ind
▲ I +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +15.2·80% of simulations: R +1.2 to D +31.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +8.9
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
I +2.3
National Environment
current political climate
D +8.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
Even
Forecasted margin
D +15.2
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and Ind (purple) win probability over time.
Dem 88%
Ind 12%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+10 This district leans Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Richard Pan
Independent Kevin Kiley (inc.)
- Notes
- Top-two primary