California's 6th Congressional District
95%
Dem
5%Ind
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D+8.9
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
I+6.0
National Environment
current political climate
D+10.2
Polls
recent state and district polling
I+1.2
Forecasted margin
D+11.9
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Bullfinch Group Independent Leadership Council | Sep 6, 2026 | Even | LV |
| The Bullfinch Group Independent Center, Independent Leadership Council | Jul 16, 2026 | D+4 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and Ind (purple) win probability over time.
Dem 95%
Ind 5%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- D+10 This district leans Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Richard Pan
Independent Kevin Kiley (inc.)
- Notes
- Top-two primary