California's 23rd Congressional District
91%
GOP
9%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+16.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+8.8
National Environment
current political climate
D+7.5
Polls
polling in similar districts
D+0.2
Forecasted margin
R+17.7
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 9%
GOP 91%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+18 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Tessa Hodge
Republican Jay Obernolte (inc.)
- Notes
- Top-two primary