California's 35th Congressional District
96%
Dem
4%GOP
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +21.4·80% of simulations: D +7.2 to D +35.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +11.0
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +2.5
National Environment
current political climate
D +7.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
Even
Forecasted margin
D +21.4
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 96%
GOP 4%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+12 This district leans strongly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Norma Torres (inc.)
Republican Mike Cargile
- Notes
- Top-two primary