California's 51st Congressional District
98%
Dem
2%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D+18.3
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+2.3
National Environment
current political climate
D+7.1
Polls
polling in similar districts
D+0.1
Forecasted margin
D+23.2
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 98%
GOP 2%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- D+20 This district leans strongly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Sara Jacobs (inc.)
Republican Ricardo Cabrera
- Notes
- Top-two primary