California's 45th Congressional District
84%
Dem
16%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +13.1·80% of simulations: R +4.3 to D +30.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +5.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +1.9
National Environment
current political climate
D +9.8
Polls
recent state and district polling
Even
Forecasted margin
D +13.1
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 84%
GOP 16%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+6 This district leans Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Derek Tran (inc.)
Republican Chuong Vo
- Notes
- Top-two primary