California's 45th Congressional District
91%
Dem
9%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D+5.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
Even
National Environment
current political climate
D+11.6
Polls
polling in similar districts
R+0.1
Forecasted margin
D+16.7
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 91%
GOP 9%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- D+6 This district leans Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Derek Tran (inc.)
Republican Chuong Vo
- Notes
- Top-two primary