California's 31st Congressional District
97%
Dem
3%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D+14.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+0.9
National Environment
current political climate
D+8.1
Polls
polling in similar districts
Even
Forecasted margin
D+21.8
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 97%
GOP 3%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- D+16 This district leans strongly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Gil Cisneros (inc.)
Republican Eric Ching
- Notes
- Top-two primary