California's 5th Congressional District
91%
GOP
9%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +17.2·80% of simulations: R +33.4 to R +1.0
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +18.1
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +5.6
National Environment
current political climate
D +6.1
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.4
Forecasted margin
R +17.2
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 9%
GOP 91%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+20 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Michael Masuda
Republican Tom McClintock (inc.)
- Notes
- Top-two primary