California's 13th Congressional District

▲ D+5% since last week
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D+4.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+3.2
National Environment
current political climate
D+11.8
Polls
polling in similar districts
R+0.1
Forecasted margin
D+13.0

What Changes the Forecast

We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.

Polls

No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.

Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 88%
GOP 12%
Race Details
Expert ratings
Cook Likely D Inside Elections Tilt D Sabato Likely D
PVI
D+5 This is a competitive district that leans slightly Democrat.
Candidates

Democrat Adam Gray (inc.)

Republican Kevin Lincoln

Notes
Top-two primary