California's 13th Congressional District
76%
Dem
24%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +9.4·80% of simulations: R +8.7 to D +27.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +4.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +5.0
National Environment
current political climate
D +10.0
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +0.1
Forecasted margin
D +9.4
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 76%
GOP 24%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+5 This is a competitive district that leans slightly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Adam Gray (inc.)
Republican Kevin Lincoln
- Notes
- Top-two primary