California's 33rd Congressional District
96%
Dem
4%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D+13.1
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+0.5
National Environment
current political climate
D+8.6
Polls
polling in similar districts
R+0.1
Forecasted margin
D+21.1
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 96%
GOP 4%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- D+14 This district leans strongly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Pete Aguilar (inc.)
Republican Stephanie M. Vargas
- Notes
- Top-two primary