Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District
74%
Dem
26%GOP
▲ D+4% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+6.4
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+0.3
National Environment
current political climate
D+11.2
Polls
recent state and district polling
R+0.1
Forecasted margin
D+4.4
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc. | Oct 11, 2026 | D+3 | LV |
| Franklin & Marshall College | Sep 20, 2026 | D+3 | RV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 74%
GOP 26%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+7 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Janelle Stelson
Republican Scott Perry (inc.)