Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District
54%
Dem
46%GOP
▲ D +2% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +0.8·80% of simulations: R +11.4 to D +12.9
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +6.4
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +1.2
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.7
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.3
Forecasted margin
D +0.8
Polls
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normington, Petts & Associates | Apr 23, 2026 | D +6 | 400 | rv |
| Public Policy Polling | Nov 19, 2025 | D +4 | 549 | rv |
| Public Policy Polling | Jul 11, 2025 | D +3 | 559 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time
Dem 54%
GOP 46%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans Republican (R+7).
- Candidates
- Janelle Stelson (D) Scott Perry (R) (inc.)