Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District
62%
Dem
38%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +2.4·80% of simulations: R +8.2 to D +13.0
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +6.4
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +0.8
National Environment
current political climate
D +9.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.1
Forecasted margin
D +2.4
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normington, Petts & Associates | Apr 23, 2026 | D +6 | 400 | rv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 62%
GOP 38%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+7 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Janelle Stelson
Republican Scott Perry (inc.)