Pennsylvania's 11th Congressional District
97%
GOP
3%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +19.8·80% of simulations: R +32.6 to R +6.9
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +19.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +6.3
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.8
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.4
Forecasted margin
R +19.7
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 3%
GOP 97%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+21 This is a safe Republican district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Nancy Mannion
Republican Lloyd Smucker (inc.)