Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District
63%
GOP
37%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +3.6·80% of simulations: R +18.4 to D +11.2
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +6.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +0.5
National Environment
current political climate
D +3.2
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
R +3.6
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | Aug 28, 2025 | D +2 | 615 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
D (blue) and R (red) win probability over time
D 37%
R 63%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans Republican (R+7).
- Candidates
- Paige Cognetti (D) Rob Bresnahan Jr. (R) (inc.)