Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District
58%
GOP
42%Dem
▲ D +2% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +1.4·80% of simulations: R +12.4 to D +9.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +6.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +1.1
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.6
Forecasted margin
R +1.4
Polls
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Research Partners | Jun 23, 2026 | D +2 | 400 | lv |
| Impact Research | Jun 11, 2026 | D +1 | 500 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | Aug 28, 2025 | D +2 | 615 | rv |
What Changes the Forecast
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time
Dem 42%
GOP 58%
Race Details
- Expert Ratings
- District Lean
- This district leans Republican (R+7).
- Candidates
- Paige Cognetti (D) Rob Bresnahan Jr. (R) (inc.)