Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District
62%
Dem
38%GOP
▲ D+4% since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R+6.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+3.3
National Environment
current political climate
D+11.1
Polls
recent state and district polling
D+0.7
Forecasted margin
D+2.0
What Changes the Forecast
The national mood is doing most of the work. A big shift or some new polling might move it.
Polls
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | Population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College Poll Vault | Oct 14, 2026 | D+4 | LV |
| Lake Research Partners House Majority PACDemocratic | Jun 23, 2026 | D+2 | LV |
| Impact Research Paige CognettiDemocratic | Jun 11, 2026 | D+1 | LV |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 62%
GOP 38%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- R+7 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Paige Cognetti
Republican Rob Bresnahan Jr. (inc.)