Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District
52%
GOP
48%Dem
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +0.3·80% of simulations: R +10.5 to D +9.8
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +6.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +3.3
National Environment
current political climate
D +9.4
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.1
Forecasted margin
R +0.3
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Research Partners | Jun 23, 2026 | D +2 | 400 | lv |
| Impact Research | Jun 11, 2026 | D +1 | 500 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 48%
GOP 52%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+7 This district leans Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Paige Cognetti
Republican Rob Bresnahan Jr. (inc.)