Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District
100%
GOP
0%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +32.1·80% of simulations: R +41.9 to R +22.2
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +34.7
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +2.9
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.3
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
R +32.1
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 0%
GOP 100%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+38 This is a safe Republican district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Ray Bilger
Republican Glenn Thompson (inc.)